The gambling world is awash with different phrases, lingo, and jargon, to the point where newcomers can easily become befuddled. For that reason, it’s important to get to grips with terms that you’re unfamiliar with ahead of kicking off any visit to the casino, whether in-person or online.
Two core concepts that look superficially similar but are very different in what they describe are RTP and Implied probability. Both are written as percentages, but that’s where the association ends. So here’s the lowdown on each one, and what they mean for Canada’s millions of gambling fans.
Unpicking the RTP Mystery
RTP stands for return to player and is used for slots on sites, like Impressario casino's Canada site, to provide a firm calculation of how much cash the game will pay out on average over time.
For instance, if a game advertises an RTP of 98%, that means the house edge is 2%. This gives you an idea of the profit margin a casino operator can expect in the long run, because RTP is calculated over a vast number of game cycles.
Crucially, RTP doesn’t apply to individual spins, individual players, or specific play sessions. If you fire up a slot with an RTP of 98% and spin the reels for 30 minutes or an hour, you shouldn’t expect to walk away with 98% of your bankroll intact at the end, because the scales over which RTP is calculated are so significant.
Game volatility also enters the equation here. Confusingly, games can have a high RTP percentage and highly volatile spins. Progressive jackpot games are a good example of this, as the eventual payout might be huge, returning the majority of the cash pool players have collectively contributed to one lucky winner. Still, the chances of hitting even a line pay on an individual spin may be minuscule.
Explaining Implied Probability
If RTP views a casino game’s payout percentage as a whole, treating it as a long-term concept, then implied probability is almost the opposite of what it describes.
In its purest form, implied probability is a way of expressing the percentage chance of an outcome based on betting odds offered by a bookmaker.
Let’s say there’s a sports event and odds of 2/9 are offered on Team A beating Team B. The implied probability in this case is 81.8%. For an outcome with odds of 1.1, the implied probability is 50%, and so on.
So, implied probability applies to the percentage likelihood of an outcome arising from a single event, whatever that might be. It’s basically a different way for bettors to look at odds and determine whether or not they believe it makes sense to place a bet with a given operator.
Comparing the Two
RTP and implied probability are useful for Canadian gambling experts, but serve distinct purposes which aren’t too hard to understand.
Looking at the RTP of slot games lets you see just how fair they are, because a higher RTP indicates that the house edge isn’t pushed too far in favour of the casino.
Converting betting odds into percentage-based implied probability, meanwhile, shows you the value of a prospective bet and gives you more information to make wagering decisions on individual events and outcomes.
Final Thoughts
Now that you know about RTP and implied probability, you should be ready to rock and roll with whatever casino-based fun catches your eye. However, it’s still a good idea to do a bit more research and perhaps play some demo games to get a feel for how these concepts play out in real life.
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